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Residents of the Big Apple will find out who will be their next mayor this election day, in a race that will decide who runs and defends the country's most populous metropolis at a time when Donald Trump has threatened to send military troops to the urban center.

Against that backdrop, New York has witnessed a race for mayor that has pitted two very different Democrats against each other. The contest has become an increasingly bitter face-off, laced with alleged racial bias and Islamophobia, but it is the ideological divide between the two main contenders that could have significant consequences for how the Democratic party fares in next year's congressional races.

The Rising Progressive

On the left side is the democratic socialist, the 34-year-old progressive candidate whose rapid ascent and people-powered movement has attracted global notice. On the establishment side is Andrew Cuomo, the former Democratic New York governor now campaigning independently – and enjoying the backing of wealthy contributors and corporations.

As the election approaches, it is the progressive, the former longshot who beat his opponent in the party primary who is solidly positioned as the leading candidate. Mamdani, who has run on a agenda of economic justice and pledged to freeze rent for about two million New Yorkers, has outpaced his rival by significant margins in every poll taken in October, and it is very much the younger man's election to lose.

A Bitter Contest

However, Cuomo, who stepped down as governor in 2021 amid allegations of sexual harassment, has stated clearly he will fight to the finish, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt manner. He has criticized Mamdani's objectives as unachievable, and in the final stretch laughed as a radio host made anti-Muslim comments about Mamdani, who is a Muslim. Two weeks ago, the independent was widely condemned as racist after posting an artificial intelligence video that included a series of racial caricatures and showed Mamdani freeing a group of criminals.

This represents a particularly ugly conclusion to an election that could be key to the path that the party, floundering in its response to Trump's power moves, adopts in the near future.

Broader Consequences

If Mamdani secures a clear victory, the party establishment who have declined to support his campaign will be forced to reckon with a message that has appealed to voters' frustration at economic disparity, inflation and the establishment. It would be difficult for the Senate leader and Hakeem Jeffries not to adopt at least a portion of Mamdani's ambitious ideas about affordability, given the newcomer has created an enthusiasm within the party perhaps not seen since the Vermont senator campaigned for the White House in 2016.

Conversely, should Cuomo, who had been predicted to sail to victory in the June primary, complete a remarkable comeback win, it could reinforce the party's current model of cautious, uninspiring resistance – a strategy that has angered grassroots members. A NYC rejection of the progressive's progressive, positive message could convince party leaders that the best plan is to remain in the political center – even as surveys show the current iteration of the Democratic party is deeply unpopular nationwide.

Voter Enthusiasm

Residents of the city seem to prefer the progressive agenda. Surveys show that Mamdani supporters are much more excited about their choice than his opponent's supporters, something that has been evident during the race. Mamdani's snappy videos on social media, his optimistic vision for New York and his readiness to actually venture out and meet people in the city has attracted an army of over fifty thousand supporters, many of them youth or new participants.

Negative Tactics

However, Cuomo, 67, isn't giving up. And with the stakes stacked against him, the former governor has turned to negative campaigning in the final days.

Following extensive launching various attacks at his opponent to see what might stick, Cuomo has narrowed his focus on targeting Mamdani directly. He has called Mamdani, who was of Ugandan origin to South Asian heritage, an “extremist”, and appeared on conservative media for an discussion with a rightwing host, where Cuomo claimed New York “will not survive” Mamdani as mayor. It reached a nadir last week, when the former governor chuckled and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said Mamdani would “cheer” another 9/11-style incident.

Political Landscape

The line of attack mirrors much of what Trump, who has deployed the national guard to Washington DC and warned to take similar action to NYC, has said about Mamdani, and maybe that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A group of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who contributed to Trump in the 2024 election, have invested heavily into trying to get the independent elected, as other powerful voices have urged Curtis Sliwa to withdraw from the race.

Political Histories

As far as the Cuomo camp, and his wealthy backers, are worried, it should never have come to this. When Mamdani, one of 150 New York state assembly members, started his campaign for mayor in last year, few had heard of him, and in reality, few even noticed.

Cuomo, by comparison, entered smoothly into the race in this year and became the instant favorite. He was the political heavyweight who seemingly held every edge. The classic establishment figure, he had wed a political dynasty member and served in a Democratic presidency. He assumed office as the state's leader in over a decade ago, seventeen years after his parent, the former governor, left office from the identical role.

Mamdani, who was voted in to the New York state assembly in recently, does not have the comparable background. But his commitment to providing free buses and free childcare – along with the rent control promise – offer a brighter outlook of the future than Cuomo’s pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and unfettered crime, and his promise to hire more police officers.

Recent Challenges

Nevertheless, Mamdani has encountered some challenges in the final phase, after footage emerged suggesting him suggesting the New York police department and the IDF were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the NYPD is on your throat, it’s been influenced by the IDF,” Mamdani said in the recording, filmed at a Democratic Socialists of America convention in 2023. Mamdani, a longtime critic of the Israeli government who has said the country is engaging in atrocities in Gaza, indicated he was questioning joint training exercises between the city police and IDF.

Emotional Response

With the election nearing, Mamdani seems to have gained sympathy and support, however, for his response to Cuomo’s increasing rhetoric.

Mamdani addressed Cuomo’s terrorism comments in an emotional video. In it, Mamdani remembered how, when he first ran for state assembly, a Muslim uncle suggested to him that he did not have to tell people about his religion. It was a realization, Mamdani said, that many local Muslims had been taught “again and again”: “That safety could only be found in the margins of our city. That it is in those hidden spaces alone where followers of Islam could embrace their full identities, and that if we were to step out from those seclusion, then it is in those silence that we must set aside our faith.”

Speaking to the actions of his opponents, who has claimed Mamd